District Projections Going into Final Week

We are down to the final week of the regular season in high school football in Missouri.  Like I said, before, the Class 5 District has been pretty well set for  a while.  Class 3 on the other hand, came a little more into focus last week, but still a lot of possible movement.

Class 3

  1. Seneca- The Indians have all but locked down this spot.  They have gone through their schedule, thus far, undefeated.  They have a tough one against Lamar this week, but even with a loss, odds are they will stay in this spot.
  2.  Cassville- The Wildcats will have to beat Mount Vernon to get this spot.  That should be a great game, if they lose they will be fourth.
  3. Reeds Spring- The Wolves will finish second in the standings, however they will automatically drop to third because of head to head losses.  This will happen no matter if its Cassville or Mount Vernon ends up in the third spot, since the Wolves lost to both.
  4. Aurora… The Houn Dawgs look to be close to a lock to be in the 4-5 game.  And, it really has nothing to do with what they do this week.  If Cassville beats Mount Vernon, Aurora will be the four.  If the ‘Neers get the win Aurora will get the five.  (even if they lose this week and some how fall to the sixth spot, they beat Monett head to head so they would jump them and move back to the five seed.)
  5. Mount Vernon…  The way I see things Mount Vernon will either be the #2 or the #5. Its pretty simple in their case.  Beat Cassville and they are the #2 seed and will get two home games as long as they win the first.  Lose to Cassville and drop to the #5 and play Aurora again, in Aurora, because of an earlier loss to the Houns.
  6. Monett- The Cubs are pretty well locked into this spot.  After winning their first two games of the year they have dropped six straight.  But have been competitive in every game.  Most games have been tied or close well into the second half
  7. Hollister – Like the Cubs, the Tigers won their first two games and have yet to find winning column since.  They will have a shot this week against a Marshfield team they beat last year, but even with a win, they finish here.
  8. East Newton- Patriots will finish in this spot again.  After making strides a year ago they are winless in 2017.  The play Monett Friday Night.

Basically the way I see things.  If Cassville beats Mount Vernon, this will be the set up week 10, almost regardless of what else happens in the district (the exception to this would be multiple upsets outside the district that effect the strength of schedules for team within)

8. East Newton at 1. Seneca

5. Mt Vernon at 4. Aurora

7. Hollister at 2. Cassville

6. Monett at 3. Reeds Spring

If Mount Vernon Beats Cassville, I see it stacking up like this

8. East Newton at 1. Seneca

5. Aurora at 4. Cassville

7. Hollister at 2. Mt Vernon

6. Monett at 3. Reeds Spring

 

As I said, things in the local Class 5 district are much easier.

Class 5

  1. Glendale… The Falcons may be close with Lebanon but should they fall behind they hold the head to head win and will move back to the #1
  2. Lebanon.. see above.
  3. Branson…  The Pirates are going to finish with a worse record than Ozark and with a lot less system points.  But the fact remains that Branson beat them in their COC matchup
  4. Ozark- nice win over Nixa but see above
  5. Waynesville- could be the scariest winless team in the state, but the fact remains they are winless, still not a matchup Branson wants to see, and they wont
  6. Central…. The Bulldogs have had a long.. long…. long.. year

That will give us, in Week 10

Glendale.. Bye

Lebanon… Bye

Waynesville at Ozark

Central at Branson

We will see how things turn out…. At this time next week, things will be official and there will be no more guessing…

Updated District Standings….

Here is a look at the updated District Standings after Week 8.  One more week to go and things are becoming more clear….  I will release my projections, as usual tomorrow.  I can already tell you that there are changes in Class 3 once again….

But here is how things stand with one game to play…

Class 3

  1. Seneca                                   8-0         48.25
  2. Reeds Spring                         6-2         43.09
  3. Cassville                                5-3          37.61
  4. Mount Vernon                      5-3          35.05
  5. Aurora                                   4-4          31.2
  6. Monett                                  2-6          25.5
  7. Hollister                               2-6           21.45
  8. East Newton                        0-8           14.82

Class 5

  1. Glendale                              5-3              35.73
  2. Lebanon                               5-3                35.38
  3. Ozark                                   4-4                30.84
  4. Branson                               3-5                23.84
  5. Waynesville                         0-8                17.29
  6. Central                                0-8                12.09

Wolves Roll To Set Up Championship Tilt….

Since Reeds Spring took care of Bolivar to open the COC portion of their schedule, many fans have looked forward to next weeks matchup with Catholic to determine the final Champion of the conference.  To their credit, the Wolves themselves, have done a great job of not looking ahead.  Instead they have steadily taken care of business, seemingly getting better each week.

The latest to fall  was Buffalo.  Last night the Wolves defeated the Bison 49-6 in front of a large crowd at Carl Langley Field.

Wolves took control from the outset, finding the endzone on three of their first four possessions.

Kelly Newton got the party started with a five yard run, just 2:28 into the contest.  It was one of two scores for the fullback on the night.  He finish with just under 200 yards on the night.  That total took him over the century mark for the season.

Blake Gronvold also had two scores on the night and rushed for (unofficially) 139 yards.  JT Bayliff and Austin Staugaard added touchdown runs as well.

The defense would get into the scoring column as well.  Ben Moler intercepted a Kyle Cooley pass and returned it 15 yards for a pick-six.

In the end it was another running clock and another chance to let the reserves get some playing time under the Friday Night Lights.

With that win, we can finally talk about it.  Next week will be the defacto Small Central Ozarks Conference Championship game: Springfield Catholic vs Reeds Spring at Carl Langley Field.

In other games featuring area teams, Branson fell to Willard 49-14.  Strafford defeated Hollister 40-0.  And Forsyth lost to state ranked Sarcoxie 48-11.

Thoughts from the Softball Season…

Branson and Reeds Spring saw their softball seasons come to an end last night.  Both had quite a bit to be proud of this year…  While I have not taken a look at any of the final stats, thought I would share a few random thoughts…

  1. These ladies can flat out play the game.
  2. Izzy Erickson is BIG TIME.
  3. Gracie Jaeger is one of the best all-around athletes this area has seen
  4. Happy to see Britton Ellis back to 100%
  5. Gonna miss seeing Mackenzie Duvall play
  6. Lauren Garrison is clutch
  7. RS only graduates two and Branson has a good group coming back
  8. We are blessed with the facilities at both places.
  9. The season flew by.
  10. The RS triple play is something I will remember as will the two triples in the same inning by Abby Rudd..  they were in the same game and were both firsts for me.
  11. Coaches are good people and great to work with.

While I mentioned a few names above I certainly did not mean to leave anyone out.  I could go on….I am grateful that I had a chance to see these ladies play and call some select games.  In my interactions, I found all of them to be nothing but pleasant and a real joy to be around.   Thanks to the coaches, players, parents, and fans for your support.

Curnes AII Player of the Week…

Former Lady Wolf and Current Lady Cat, Danielle Curnes has been named the Volleyball Player of the Week by the Association of Independent Institutions.

The Reeds Spring native has been a vital part of the tremendous season the Lady Cats are having.  They have already reached the 20 win mark.

The versatile senior was in great form in the Lady Cats two victories in the Lyon Triangular.  In the match one victory over Hanibal-LaGrange, she recorded Five Aces and Seven Kills.  Then, she followed that up, with a double-double (13 Kills and 18 digs) against the host school.

For the year, Curnes has 242 Kills and 262 digs.

photo courtesy of CofO

My Latest District Projection…

Only two weeks left in the regular season.  And while the Class 5 District, in my opinion, has been set for a couple of weeks, the Class 3 District is anything, but.

Keep in mind, that my projections have nothing to do with what I would like to see happen.  Taking into consideration the results of games being played and the schedule that lies ahead, here is how I see things.

Class 3

  1. Seneca- For the first time I move the Indians to the top spot.  Their victory over Cassville will make them tough to catch if they split the final two games.
  2. Reeds Spring- The Wolves have been more impressive each week.  They have done everything possible the past FIVE weeks.  Have won all five games and won all of them convincingly Concentration is on the COC Title.  The seedings come out as they come out.
  3. Aurora- These guys have been nothing short of impressive the past month.  They get Cassville this week.  They win… this spot will be theres.
  4. Cassville- Wildcats finish with Aurora and Mount Vernon.  For the purpose of this, I see them falling to Aurora and defeating the ‘Neers.
  5. Mount Vernon – I have moved these guys all over the place.  Its a great example of just how close the top five of this district are.  They finish with Lamar and Cassville.  They win either one of them and will jump.
  6. Monett- Cubs are pretty well locked into this spot.  If they somehow upset Seneca it would really change things in the whole district.
  7. Hollister- Tigers have had a tough time of it after picking up those two wins to start the year.  They are in no danger of dropping to the  8 spot but would need some help to move up.
  8. East Newton- The Patriots have been pretty well locked in this spot for a few weeks.

The top five could still end up in almost any order.  Keep in mind that once the final standings are set, you will exchange positions with the team ahead of you if you beat them head to head.  (just a note about that, you can not move up OR down any more than one spot)  The movement will go from top to bottom.  So, for instance, if the number one seed lost to the number two seed, but the number two seed, lost to the three seed, the flip flop of one-two takes precedence over two-three.  If you are a Reeds Spring fan, Aurora, right now, is your friend.  If they continue to win they will act as a buffer between the Wolves and the two teams that beat them to start the season.  Regardless of how the standings come out it should set up some great matchups in the District Playoffs.

The next two weeks will be huge, with head to head matchups. and will tell the tale.  Any of the top five could still land the number one seed if things fall right.   I will go over more specific scenarios next week.

Class 5

  1. Glendale – The high powered offense is again impressive and the head to head win over Lebanon practically assures them of this spot
  2. Lebanon- See above
  3. Branson- Pirates had a shot to move into this spot in the standings this past week but could not get past Republic.  Still, they have the win over Ozark in hand and will jump the Tigers, even if they dont catch them in the standings.
  4. Ozark- Ozark has the battle with Nixa ahead and the game with Bolivar.  They COULD possibly win both.. but unless they can pass Lebanon in the standings they are locked into this spot
  5. Waynesville- still winless but still a bit of a scary matchup.
  6. Central- The Bulldogs finally get some offense going but it is not enough.

Not a lot of explanation needed here.. its the same as it has been for a few weeks.