Month: October 2021

Updated District Projections

  We are down to the final week of the regular season.  And, even though there were a few surprising results last week, my projections stay close to the same.

Class 3

 

 Aurora (7-1) 47.98
 Hollister (5-3) 38.5
 Mountain Grove (5-2) 36.86
 Buffalo (5-3) 36.05
 Seneca (4-4) 35
 Reeds Spring (3-5) 28.96
 Cassville (3-5) 28.4

  This is what it looks like now… But I still believe the final standings will be closer to what they were a week ago.  Mountain Grove sits in the 3 spot now, but they have to play Thayer this week.  They are going to have trouble staying where they currently are, unless they can pull an upset.  Seneca sits in the 5 spot, but could very easily end up 3rd.  They play Monett this week.  They will get a bonus for sure for playing the bigger school, but are likely to pick up a win as well.  Buffalo, is the interesting one here.  The Bison play one loss Warsaw.  This one will be extremely tight.  Every point could make a difference.  Reeds Spring-Cassville is tight.  They both play up this week.  If they do the same thing this week, Reeds Spring will remain ahead, even though Cassville will gain a small amount by playing a team with a better record than the Wolves opponent.  However, that will only make a .27 difference (unless there are upsets elsewhere)  The only realistic way, according to my numbers, Cassville can catch Reeds Spring is by getting a better result against McDonald County than the Wolves do against Rogersville.   My projecton:

Aurora      BYE

Cassville at Hollister

Reeds Spring at Seneca

Buffalo at Mountain Grove

        Class 5

 Lebanon (7-1) 44.44
 Glendale (5-2) 39.61
 Camdenton (6-2) 37.28
 Rolla (5-3) 35.98
 Branson (3-5) 28.88
 Central (Springfield) (3-5) 25.05
 Waynesville (2-6)

24.32

 

 This one is close to set up.. Rolla made things interesting with an upset of Lebanon last week, if they beat Camdenton this week, things will change big time.  Right now the Bulldogs are set to finish 4th.  And, Camdenton looks to jump Glendale because of beating them head to head.  If Rolla pulls off a win they are likely to get enough points to jump the Lakers and thus allowing Glendale to hang onto the 2 spot. That game will be big for Branson’s future.  My Projecton

Rolla    BYE

Waynesville  at Camdeton

Central at Glendale

Branson at Rolla

              Class 2 

  This one might be the easiest to project.  Much of this one is already decided.  Ava is the class of the District.  Forsyth has pretty much locked up the second spot, even if they lose this week, they are playing Central and have a double bonus coming.  Liberty has a victory over Strafford, just in case the Indians pass them in the standings.   Catholic will get a bonus but it wont be enough and Willow will jump Houston because of head to head victory.  Projection:

Ava     BYE

Houston at Forsyth

Willow at Liberty

Catholic at Strafford

 Ava (8-0) 52.71
 Forsyth (5-3) 35.24
 Liberty (Mountain View) (4-4) 33.73
 Strafford (4-3) 32.15
 Springfield Catholic (1-7) 29.05
 Houston (2-5) 25.38
 Willow Springs (2-6)

24.21

Football Districts Taking Shape

  With two weeks left in the regular season the Football Districts are starting to become a little more clear.  Hollister and Forsyth will almost assuredly be at home for the opening round.  Branson still has a shot, but likely needs help and Reeds Spring sees their likely destinations narrowing down.

Class 5

1 Lebanon     38.28

2 Glendale 41.78

3 Camdenton  37.1

4  Rolla   34.19

5  Branson  28

6 Central 27.04

7.  Waynesville  25.33

    Above are the current standings…  There is a decent chance that this is exactly how things finish.  Lebanon looks good to be number one.  Glendale and Camdenton play this week.  The winner will get the two.  Branson is chasing Rolla but is over six points behind.  Pirates do get a bonus for playing Joplin this week.  Also, don’t forget about Central.  They are less than a point behind Branson.  They have Buffalo and Forsyth coming up.  If they get either of those games it will be close.

 My projected first round pairings….

Lebanon BYE

Waynesville at Glendale

Central at Camdenton

Branson at Rolla

 

     Class 3

  1.  Aurora   47.81
  2. Hollister   38.1
  3. Seneca       37.57
  4. Mtn Grove   36.98
  5. Buffalo    31.67
  6. Reeds Spring  30.81
  7. Cassville     26.29

       Again, this one might very well finish in the exact same order they are currently in.  Aurora has all but locked up the top spot.  Hollister is likely going to get the #2 seed as they finish with Catholic and Mt Vernon.  Tigers might want to make sure they get the max points possible in those games because it could get a little tight behind them.  The Tigers strength of schedule numbers are going to take a hit because the teams they have left have combined for only ONE win.  Tigers have a win over Seneca, so even if they pass Hollister, the Tigers would jump them because of the head to head matchup.  Seneca is likely to go 1-1 as they face Lamar this week but finish with Monett (a bonus point game)  Mountain Grove will try to crash the party.  The Panthers are in fourth but only 1.12 points out of second.  They, however, finish with Thayer, if they pull an upset it will be interesting.  Buffalo and Reeds Spring are separated by less than a point.  Wolves get a bonus for playing up next week but Buffalo gets a double bonus, this week, plus the opponent is Central, so they may very well get a win to boot.  Wolves likely need to win both games while Buffalo splits in order to pass the Bison.

  My projected matchups

Aurora     BYE

Cassville at Hollister (would be the first time the Tigers have ever hosted)

Reeds Spring at Seneca

Buffalo at Mountain Grove

 

   CLASS  2

  1.  Ava      53.54
  2. Forsyth   34.26
  3. Liberty     30.69
  4. Strafford   29.29
  5. Catholic    27.57
  6. Houston   25.63
  7. Willow   25.62

     This one is a little different, as I project a little movement.  No doubt Ava is the one… they can put the BYE on their calendar.  Forsyth is likely the 2 unless something strange happens.  If they slip and lose they have a double bonus point game vs Central still in their pocket.  3-5 is where it will get interesting…. Mtn View-Liberty is likely fine in the three hole as long as they don’t slip up against Salem (they will get a bonus, no matter what) and not sure their week 9  game vs Houston will happen.  Strafford at Stockton this week could be huge in sorting all this out.  If the Indians lose they are likely to finish behind Catholic, even if they win it will be close.  The Irish will get bonus points in each of the last two games including a double bonus this week vs Monett.  Willow is .01 behind Houston but they beat the Tigers head to head and will jump them.

  My projections….

Ava    BYE

Houston at Forsyth

Willow at Liberty

Strafford at Catholic

  Keep in mind, these are guesses as best… More will become clear Friday Night….