We have one week left in the regular season and the Football districts are clearer than they have been perhaps in any year..
Class 3
The Class 3 District is pretty well set and could and not even sure that a couple of upsets will change much.
Mt Vernon has been the class of the district all year and has already locked up the number one seed. Cassville still has to play Lamar. Should they lose, they would most likely finish behind Monett in the standings but would jump over the Cubs because they beat them head to head. Monett is locked into the three. Seneca will likely finish fourth but even if they were to lose this week and drop behind Reeds Spring they would get the fourth seed because they beat the Wolves Week 2. The Wolves are going to be the five and Hollister will be the six. Even if Hollister were to beat Mt Vernon big and Seneca lose to McDonald County coupled with Reeds Spring losing to Aurora.. it would likely not make a difference due to the fact that Seneca will be bonus points for playing up and Reeds Spring beat the Tigers head to head. Aurora will finish seventh and Nevada eight.
My Projected Week 10 Matchups
Reeds Spring at Seneca
Hollister at Monett
Nevada at Mt Vernon
Aurora at Cassville
Class 5
Carthage is far and away the top team in the district. There are only five teams in this district, and while Branson is likely to finish in the last spot, they will, most likely get to host a playoff game even if they dont improve on their one win.
After Carthage it gets pretty tight. The most likely finish is exactly like they are right now…. But, Assuming Ozark losing to Carthage and Nixa losing to Webb City, while Republic beats Neosho , it could come down to the narrowest of margins. If Ozark and Nixa both lose by 13 or more and Republic wins by 13 or more, they would have an outside chance at moving up. They all play the same schedule, so that part of the seeding formula is even. This is easily in my margin for error.. but if this happens I have Republic finishing ahead of Ozark by 0.07 points. This is important because Republic beat Nixa. As it stands right Now, Republic is fourth ahead of Branson. But the Pirates beat them and would jump them and host the Tigers in the Opening Round. So, Nixa, as it stands would finish LAST and have to come to Branson… But the scenario I listed about would jump them all the way to #2.
My Projected District Matchups
Republic at Branson
Carthage BYE
Ozark BYE
Nixa BYE
Class 2
The top and bottom of this district is pretty well set, unless there are a ton of upsets, the top two and bottom two are locked. Strafford has a winnable game against Slater and a win would almost assuredly get them the three seed. Willow plays Ava and Houston plays Liberty. If they both lose by 13 or more it would give East Newton a chance to at least slide to the fourth spot. Even if the Patriots lose big, the fact that the play Catholic and will get bonus points, its going to help them… Willow will benefit on strength of schedule from playing undefeated Ava. I think that will be enough to hold off EN and guarantee a home game.. But I do believe it will be enough for the Pats to pass Houston. I am having to predict more in this district than any other… But this is How I see it going down…
My projected District Matchups
Forsyth at Mt View Liberty
East Newton at Willow Springs
Mountain Grove at Ava
Houston at Strafford
